WTNT34 KNHC 162031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...HURRICANE DEAN RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 100
MPH WINDS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...BARBADOS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
MONSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA AND ST. MAARTEN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA
AND EASTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES...
335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...
EAST OF MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL BE CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES
EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER.  DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41040...THE FRENCH BUOY 41101 AND A
NEW STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM...FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...14.0 N...56.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

000
WTNT44 KNHC 162031
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN
AND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED
TO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.
ONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF
VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG
AND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.
THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE
HURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE.  TRACK MODELS
ARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

THE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
KNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      16/2100Z 14.0N  56.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  63.5W    95 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.0W   100 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  70.5W   110 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W   115 KT
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  84.5W   120 KT
120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.5W    90 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE